23 May, 2019 Let’s Get This Party Started
Episode 3: The War on Media Misinformation
3 Jun, 2020
This episode features guest Terry Ryder of hotspotting.com.au
- The Media continually refers to the Australian Property Market largely based on what is happening with the Sydney and Melbourne Markets as if they represent what is happening across the “Whole Australian Property Market.”
- The Media report if Sydney and Melbourne are booming then the nation is booming if they are falling the nation is falling.
- We are dealing with thousands of markets across the country that are not really being influenced by what is happening at the macro level but is influence by the local economy.
- What’s happening in Sydney is different from what’s happening in Perth.
- What’s happening in Brisbane is different from what’s happening in Ballarat.
- People think you need to invest in the Capital Cities to Make the biggest gains – Not True
- Let’s take a look at the numbers. For example Ballarat and Geelong had more price growth than Melbourne – Over the past 5 years.
- In New South Wales Newcastle, Orange and Wollongong had more price growth than Sydney. – Over the past 5 years.
- Moral of the story – You can get superior growth in the regions.
Media Obsession with Exaggerations and Reporting Disaster rather than the Facts.
- CBA – They expect a fall of maybe 10% and the absolute worst case scenario being 32% . Media has gone for the worst case scenario and obsessed with reporting that.
- National Vacancy rates – Currently sit at 2.6% up slightly from 2.3% a year ago. Media reported the extreme examples where vacancies blew out a lot such as Sydney where the CBD was already at a vacancy rate of 15%.
- What wasn’t reported was the surge in vacancy rates was due to the travel restrictions with lots of short-term rented Air BNB Apartments being put back in to the rental pool.
- Ongoing Inaccuracies of Forecasting – Unemployment Figures across Economists the prediction was Unemployment to hit 8.5% real number was 6.2%.
- The unemployment figures were in the words of Anthony Albanese ‘ Devastating” – It was just Political Capital or Political Pointscoring with no regard for those who had lost their jobs.
- What wasn’t reported with the fact that the Unemployment figures were as a result of a Government engineered shutdown and that the Government are now putting in measures to steer the economy out of the Covid-19 Shutdown.
Moral of the Story behind Media is be Careful What you Believe and what you read…
- If your sole research was the mainstream press which is filled with doom and gloom you’d never invest.
- Examples of High Profile Economists who regularly get it wrong when predicting the Real Estate Markets.
- Reading the newspapers is filled with misinformation it’s not really research if you want to be a successful property investor.
- Do your Homework and remember that Australia is made up of 1000’s of Local Economies.
- Cut out the white noise from mainstream media.